Last 7 Days

The 2026 commissioning wave is accelerating. Golden Pass entered turbine testing, three FIDs are queuing for Q1 2026 (Lake Charles, Amigo, Alaska), and Cedar LNG hit 50% capacity contracted, while German regas slots went unallocated, signaling demand-side uncertainty beneath the supply buildout.

Updated: December 17, 2025

Top Signals

Golden Pass Train 1 entered turbine testing, targeting early 2026 first LNG. Cooldown cargo delivered, 800 MMcf/d of incremental feed gas demand activating. The commissioning progression signals imminent addition of U.S. Gulf Coast liquefaction capacity with material implications for domestic gas balances and Atlantic Basin supply. Read: Natural Gas Intelligence Dec 15

Three major FIDs queuing for Q1 2026. Energy Transfer's 16.5 mtpa Lake Charles has secured sufficient sales agreements. Amigo LNG targeting Mexico export terminal decision. Alaska LNG completed all federal permitting ahead of schedule. Combined, these represent 40+ mtpa of potential capacity moving toward commitment. Read: Reuters Dec 10 | LNG Prime Dec 16

Cedar LNG reached 50% capacity contracted with Ovintiv deal. Pembina signed a 12-year synthetic liquefaction agreement for 0.5 mtpa, raising expected EBITDA to $220-280 million annually. Construction 30% complete with largest capital year in 2026; late 2028 operations targeted. Read: Pembina Dec 16

Structural Pattern

US Gulf Coast is stacking commissioning milestones. Golden Pass turbine testing joins Plaquemines ramp-up; Lake Charles FID-ready. The 2026-2027 supply wave is no longer theoretical—it's in execution with feed gas nominations spiking and cooldown cargoes delivered. Read: Natural Gas Intelligence Dec 15

Australian brownfield expansion continues through subsea investment. TechnipFMC awarded Gorgon Stage 3 subsea contract ($75-250M); EnerMech mobilizing for Pluto Train 2 pre-commissioning in December. Operators prioritizing capital-efficient tie-backs over greenfield risk—5 mtpa from Scarborough-Pluto targeting 2026 first LNG. Read: TechnipFMC Dec 11 | Offshore Energy Dec 10

Vietnam commissioned first LNG-to-power capacity. Nhon Trach 3 and 4 (1.6 GW) operational, marking Vietnam's entry as structural LNG importer. PDP8 targets 22.5 GW LNG by 2030 but 25% of projects lack investors and 50%+ face delays—policy adjustments needed to unlock demand. Read: Business Times Dec 14

Small-scale infrastructure expanding in Europe and Latin America. Belgium's Somtrans christened 8,000 cbm LNG bunkering barge for Antwerp-Zeebrugge; Colombia's Caribe LNG targeting mid-2026 start-up with 51 BBTU/d FSU-based import terminal to cover 20-40% of 190 BBTU/d supply deficit. Read: Baird Maritime Dec 15 | BN Americas Dec 12

Friction Watch

German regas capacity went unallocated. DET offered 27 Wilhelmshaven slots December 9-10—zero uptake at €0.56/MMBtu. Second round starts December 22 for Q1-Q2 2026. Signals weak near-term demand for Northwest European import capacity or sufficient contracted baseload making spot access unnecessary. Read: DET Dec 12

Vietnam's LNG buildout faces structural execution risk. Despite Nhon Trach commissioning, 25% of PDP8's 22.5 GW LNG target lacks investors; government considering raising offtake guarantees from 65% to 75% and extending contracts to 15 years. Current terms insufficient to mobilize capital. Read: Business Times Dec 14

Lake Charles seeking 80% equity partners. Energy Transfer has sales agreements but wants to sell majority stake before FID. Capital market appetite for greenfield LNG infrastructure introduces execution risk for one of the largest US projects in queue. Read: Reuters Dec 10

Forward Calendar

Early 2026: Lake Charles FID. 16.5 mtpa capacity with sales agreements secured. Equity partnership finalization pending. Read: Reuters Dec 10

Q1 2026: Amigo LNG FID. Mexico export terminal backed by Singapore JV partners targeting commitment. Read: LNG Prime Dec 16

2026: Golden Pass, Pluto Train 2 first LNG. Two major facilities targeting commissioning—combined ~15 mtpa of new supply entering market. Read: Natural Gas Intelligence Dec 15 | Offshore Energy Dec 10

Late 2028: Cedar LNG operations. 50% contracted, 30% construction complete. Pembina's largest capital year in 2026. Read: Pembina Dec 16

Bottom Line

Project milestones confirm the supply wave is real and accelerating. Golden Pass is in commissioning. Three major FIDs are queuing for Q1 2026. Australian brownfields are adding incremental capacity through tie-backs. But the demand side is flashing caution—German regas slots went unfilled, Vietnam needs policy fixes to attract investors, and Lake Charles needs equity partners before committing. The pattern is clear: supply-side execution is outpacing demand-side certainty. The projects will get built. The question is whether buyers will be there when the molecules arrive.

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