Last 7 Days

Policy is enabling supply in the US and Japan while creating friction in Europe. Alaska LNG completed federal permitting ahead of schedule, Trump approved three major export projects, but US-EU methane regulation standoff threatens to fragment transatlantic LNG flows by 2027.

Updated: December 17, 2025

Top Signals

Alaska LNG completed all federal permitting ahead of schedule. NOAA renewed the final permit December 10 for the 20 mtpa project, clearing regulatory gates for Glenfarne's early 2026 FID on the $44 billion development. Governor Dunleavy is proposing a 90% property tax cut—2 mills versus standard 20 mills—for the project's 30-year lifetime. Read: Federal Permitting Council Dec 11 | Anchorage Daily News Dec 16

Trump administration approved three major LNG export projects including CP2. Venture Global's 28 mtpa CP2 Louisiana project received DOE authorization alongside two others, with export permit moratoriums lifted on day one. US natural gas production up 4.6% in 2025, creating structural feedstock availability for expanded liquefaction. Read: Bloomberg Dec 17

EU offered simplified methane compliance pathways after US pressure. European Commission introduced certification and trace-and-claim options for US exporters unable to track upstream emissions. Core 2027 mandate preserved—new contracts must demonstrate methane equivalence—but implementation friction reduced for legacy flows. Read: Reuters Dec 11 | Bloomberg Dec 11

Regulatory Pattern

US is accelerating LNG permitting at federal and state levels. Three major export authorizations, Alaska permitting complete ahead of schedule, CP2 cleared for 28 mtpa. State-level tax incentives in Alaska signal coordinated federal-state support for greenfield development. Read: Bloomberg Dec 17

Japan is restructuring upstream investment terms to secure supply. METI announced JOGMEC JV reforms enabling priority dividends, accelerated capital recovery, and equity buyout options for corporate partners in producing LNG assets. Over 90 billion yen in supplementary budget supports the shift. Read: Reuters Dec 16

Australia resumed offshore exploration releases after 3-year pause. Five Otway Basin areas open for bidding through June 2026, targeting forecast structural gas shortfalls from 2029. ConocoPhillips drilling actively in the basin with recent discovery. Read: Reuters Dec 11 | S&P Global Dec 11

Europe is fast-tracking grid permits while tightening foreign investment screening. Proposed two-year permit cap for grid projects (down from decade-long waits) paired with cybersecurity and ownership screening for cross-border infrastructure. Creates new friction for non-EU capital in European gas supply chain. Read: Reuters Dec 10

Regulatory Friction

US requesting 8-year delay on EU methane compliance. Washington asked Brussels to exempt US LNG from reporting requirements until October 2035—well past the January 2027 deadline. Structural non-alignment between US supply chains and EU import standards creates diversion risk for US cargoes. ExxonMobil CEO called EU directive "the worst piece of legislation I've seen." Read: OilPrice.com Dec 15

India's infrastructure bottlenecks limit demand absorption. PNGRB chairman acknowledged 52 mtpa of underutilized regas capacity, incomplete pipeline connectivity, and pricing distortions favoring CNG over residential PNG. Regulatory gaps in terminal oversight and lack of common-carrier mandates block incremental LNG import growth. Read: The Hindu Dec 13

Queensland blocks interstate gas sharing, fragmenting Australian market. Energy Minister Janetzki rejected federal authority to mandate gas reserves for southern states, calling shortages "self-made." Creates structural uncertainty for Victoria and NSW supply adequacy and may intensify east coast LNG netback pressure. Read: The Australian Dec 10

Forward Calendar

June 2026: Australia Otway Basin exploration bids close. Five offshore areas in Commonwealth waters targeting 2029+ supply gaps. Public consultation runs through February 6, 2026. Read: S&P Global Dec 11

Q1 2026: Zeeland Energy Terminal open season. Netherlands FSRU project advances permitting with draft environmental scoping published; commercial marketing to follow. Target operations Q3 2029. Read: VTTI Dec 12

Early 2026: Alaska LNG final investment decision. Federal permitting complete; state tax incentive pending legislative approval. Tokyo Gas and POSCO preliminary offtake covers over half of volumes. Read: Federal Permitting Council Dec 11

January 2027: EU methane regulation compliance begins. New gas supply contracts must demonstrate monitoring, reporting, and verification equivalent to EU standards. US requesting exemption until 2035; simplified pathways offered but core mandate preserved. Read: Reuters Dec 11

Bottom Line

The regulatory environment is bifurcated: supply-side enabling in the US and Japan, demand-side friction in Europe and emerging Asia. US permitting acceleration is real—Alaska complete, CP2 approved, moratoriums lifted—and Japan is restructuring investment terms to de-risk corporate participation in upstream LNG. But Europe's methane regulation creates a structural compliance cliff in 2027 that threatens to fragment global LNG flows by emissions transparency. The US request for an 8-year exemption signals inability or unwillingness to build tracking infrastructure; simplified pathways reduce near-term friction but don't eliminate the 2027 mandate. Meanwhile, India's demand potential remains locked behind infrastructure and regulatory gaps, and Australia's domestic market is fragmenting over interstate gas sharing. Policy is enabling supply faster than it's enabling demand.

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