Last 7 Days

Demand is split: Asia weakening, Atlantic tightening. Japan imports down 6%, China LNG imports down 16% YTD, but US demand hit 160 Bcf/d and European storage trails last year by 9 points, creating regional tension over the same cargoes.

Updated December 17, 2025

Top Signals

China's LNG import decline is structural, not cyclical. CNPC forecasts 5% gas demand rebound in 2025, but LNG imports fell 16% year-to-date as spot price sensitivity now determines procurement levels. Poten forecasts 100 cargo cancellations in 2029-2030 as Asia fails to absorb the supply wave. Read: Reuters Dec 12 | TradeWinds Dec 10

US domestic demand is competing with exports. Gas demand hit 160 Bcf/d mid-December, approaching January 2025's 177 Bcf/d record. The tension between heating season consumption and Gulf Coast feedgas requirements is real—curtailment risk rising if cold persists. Read: @ira_joseph via X Dec 15

Japan's imports dropped 6.3% year-on-year in November. Volume fell to 4.73 million tonnes with value down 17.7%, signaling demand-side contraction from weather, industrial slowdown, or fuel substitution. Frees spot cargoes for other buyers but raises questions about Northeast Asian demand durability. Read: LNG Prime Dec 17 | Ministry of Finance Japan Dec 17

Demand Divergence

Europe is tightening on weather and storage deficit. TTF rose to €27.50/MWh as forecasts show below-normal temperatures through late December. Storage at 69.3%—nearly 9 points below last year. Freeport outage compounds supply-side pressure during peak demand. Read: Reuters Dec 17

South Korea remains a demand anchor. Kogas reported 13% year-on-year sales growth in November, reinforcing Korea's structural role as Northeast Asia's most consistent LNG buyer during heating season. Read: LNG Prime Dec 10

Coal is holding ground in Asia despite decline narrative. Global coal demand hit a record 8,845 Mt in 2025. China at 4,953 Mt, India at 1,297 Mt. Coal-to-gas switching potential exists but isn't materializing at scale—gas still only 3.2% of China's power mix versus 22% global average. Read: @JavierBlas via X Dec 17

India's demand potential is infrastructure-constrained. IEA identifies India as the price-sensitive market that could absorb surplus LNG, but regasification and grid capacity aren't ready. The gap between import potential and actual infrastructure is widening. Read: CNBC Dec 13

Demand Weakness

China is stockpiling crude, not gas. Crude surplus hit 1.88 million barrels per day in November—highest in six months—as Brent fell to $60.15. Energy security capital is flowing to oil inventory, not LNG procurement. Read: Reuters Dec 15

Climate premiums are fading. European buyers deprioritizing emissions intensity in favor of cost and reliability. US developers shelving carbon capture and hydrogen integration as policy support weakens. Green LNG differentiation losing commercial traction. Read: Energy Intelligence Dec 12

TotalEnergies expects LNG prices to drop by 2027. CEO Pouyanné signaling structural oversupply as Qatar and US projects commission, prompting the company to reduce spot exposure and lock in long-term Asian contracts as a hedge. Read: Bloomberg Dec 17

Forward Calendar

Bangladesh spot tender. Bids due December 14 for January 9-10 delivery cargo. Continued reliance on short-term procurement to bridge 1,350+ mmcfd structural supply gap. Read: RPGCL Dec 11

US weather through January. Domestic demand at 160 Bcf/d already straining the system. Extended cold forces hard choices between export commitments and domestic supply adequacy. Read: @ira_joseph via X Dec 15

Freeport outage duration. If train remains offline through late December, Atlantic Basin tightness intensifies. Engie EnergyScan warns of "major impact" on US exports and European/Asian prices. Read: Reuters Dec 17

China December import data. Will the 16% year-to-date decline extend or moderate? The answer shapes Q1 2026 Pacific Basin balances. Read: Reuters Dec 12

Bottom Line

Demand signals confirm a bifurcated market: Asia is price-constrained and structurally unable to absorb the coming supply wave, while the Atlantic faces weather-driven tightness that masks the underlying oversupply. China's import behavior is now explicitly price-determined—CNPC said it directly. Japan is contracting. Korea is the exception. Europe needs cargoes now but won't need them at this pace once winter breaks. The 2027 oversupply that TotalEnergies is positioning for starts with 2025's demand weakness. The question isn't whether supply is coming—it's whether anyone will be there to take it.

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