Fluxys LNG - Regasification slots available on sale for Q2 2026 - Press Release

Petrovietnam Gas awards first-ever LNG term contract to Shell - Reuters

South Korean Shipbuilders Target LNG Carriers Amid Global Order Decline - The Chosun Daily

Japan regulator says it may start Chubu Electric nuclear review from scratch - Reuters

LNG Market Moves From Famine to Feast on Wave of New Supply - Bloomberg

Clearer Timeline Emerges for Next Wave of U.S. LNG Projects as Buildout Hits Overdrive - Natural Gas Intelligence (Subscription)

Even as overall volumes rise, the ratio of intra- to cross-basin LNG trade remains roughly the same - @ira_joseph via X

Chinese LNG under long-term contract will be shooting up over the next few years - @ira_joseph via X

Have we achieved peak LNG demand in South America? - @ira_joseph via X

Hedge funds lose interest in oil - @JKempEnergy via X

Japan Inc keeping close watch on Woodside CEO succession. - The Australian Financial Review (Subscription)

Hamstrung by lower oil prices, US gas production has essentially been flat lining since July 2025 - @ira_joseph via X

The rise of US exports to Europe has also meant the demise of Qatari exports to Europe - @ira_joseph via X

LNG Prices Under Pressure Amid Holiday Lull - Energy Intelligence (Subscription)

Hungary Diversifies Via LNG Amid Marginal Demand Gains - Energy Intelligence (Subscription)

FSRU use for LNG imports hits record high in 2025, Fearnleys says - TradeWinds (Subscription)

LNG Canada Ramp-Up to Drive Record January Exports, Boost Natural Gas Demand - Natural Gas Intelligence (Subscription)

Are exports to blame for surging US gas and electricity prices? - Financial Times (Subscription)

LNG SCANNER — RED FLAGS

LNG Scanner Red Flags delivers one risk signal from each of four specialist AI lenses: Market, Geopolitical, EPC, and Legal, with no overlap.

MARKET SCANNER

US production flat since July 2025 — HH pulling gas from power into feedgas

Domestic gas production stagnation is forcing price reallocation. Higher Henry Hub is redirecting molecules from power generation to LNG exports. Coal is backfilling. Export utilization now price-sensitive, not capacity-constrained. Structural competition between domestic power and exports intensifying.

GEOPOLITICAL SCANNER

Shadow fleet transshipment fully operational — 13.2 mtpa Arctic LNG 2 now exporting

Saam FSU in Ura Bay active since late December. Christophe de Margerie shuttling from Utrenny. Voskhod, Buran, Arctic Pioneer loading AIS-dark. All vessels sanctioned. Western enforcement has not stopped the flow. Sanctions circumvention proven at scale.

EPC SCANNER

Golden Pass + CCL Stage 3 targeting June 2026 — biggest pipeline buildout in decade required

Two major facilities racing to mid-2026 commissioning. Combined ~35 mtpa. Concurrent pipeline infrastructure must complete to support feedgas. Any upstream delay cascades to export capacity. Execution risk concentrated in single timeline window.

LEGAL SCANNER

EU storage 59.8% vs 73% five-year average — contract stress if cold snap hits

Europe relying on LNG send-outs over inventory buffers. Market pricing supply adequacy, but 13pp storage deficit creates latent vulnerability. Severe weather event could trigger spot scramble, force majeure claims, and buyer-seller disputes on delivery obligations.

SUMMARY TABLE

WHY THESE FLAGS — DEFENSE

Market Scanner: US Production Flat → HH Competition

Why this is Market's flag:

• Production data (flat since July 2025) = Market owns
• Price dynamics (HH rising) = Market owns
• Feedgas allocation = Market owns
• Coal switching in power = Market owns

Why it's a red flag: The US export model assumes abundant cheap gas. If production stays flat while export capacity grows, the math breaks. HH has to rise to ration molecules. That's not a Geo story (no policy caused it) — it's pure supply/demand mechanics.

Source: @ira_joseph — "Hamstrung by lower oil prices, US gas production has essentially been flat lining since July 2025. The market is coping thru higher Henry Hub prices, which is pulling gas out of the power sector and pushing it into LNG feed gas. Coal is benefitting from the switch."

Geopolitical Scanner: Shadow Fleet Operational

Why this is Geo's flag:

• Sanctions evasion = Geo owns
• Russia/Arctic operations = Geo owns
• AIS manipulation = Geo owns
• China flows from sanctioned projects = Geo owns

Why it's a red flag: Western sanctions were supposed to strand Arctic LNG 2. They haven't. 13.2 mtpa is now flowing through a systematic transshipment operation. This is a policy failure with structural supply implications — exactly what Geo Scanner exists to surface.

Source: The Barents Observer — "A transshipment operation of liquefied natural gas has commenced at the Saam floating storage unit in Ura Bay... All involved carriers are under international sanctions. All involved carriers disable AIS when approaching terminal facilities."

EPC Scanner: Golden Pass + CCL + Pipeline Timing

Why this is EPC's flag:

• Project milestones (June 2026 target) = EPC owns
• Pipeline infrastructure buildout = EPC owns
• Execution risk = EPC owns
• Commissioning timelines = EPC owns

Why it's a red flag: ~35 mtpa of capacity plus the biggest US pipeline buildout in a decade all converging on the same 6-month window. Any slip cascades. This is classic EPC execution concentration risk, not a market signal, not a policy signal, not a legal signal.

Source: Natural Gas Intelligence — "CCL Stage 3, Golden Pass next up. New capacity could be online by June 2026. Biggest pipeline buildout in a decade coming."

Legal Scanner: EU Storage Deficit → Contract Stress

Why this is Legal's flag:

• Contract stress (precursor) = Legal owns
• Force majeure risk = Legal owns
• Buyer-seller dispute potential = Legal owns

Why it's a red flag: EU storage at 59.8% vs 73% five-year average isn't a crisis today, the market is calm. But Legal Scanner looks for precursors. A cold snap would flip this from "fine" to "scramble" instantly. That's when FM claims get filed, delivery disputes emerge, and counterparty stress surfaces.

Source: The Wall Street Journal — "EU gas storage levels were reported at 59.8% full. Five-year average EU gas storage levels were reported at 73%... forecasts indicate milder conditions later in the month."

Potential Challenges

"Shadow fleet should be Legal because of compliance risk"

Counterargument: The news is about operations (Saam FSU active, vessels loading AIS-dark). Legal would own if the news was about a Western insurer or charterer facing enforcement. Geo owns the evasion scheme; Legal owns the Western exposure. This article is about the scheme.

"EU storage should be Market because it's a price input"

Counterargument: The market is not pricing it as a risk right now (prices stable, ING says LNG send-outs offsetting). Legal Scanner's job is to see the precursor that Market isn't pricing. If cold weather hits, Market will catch up — but Legal flags it first.

"Golden Pass should be Market because it's supply"

Counterargument: Golden Pass isn't producing yet. When it ships first cargo, that's Market news. Right now it's an execution milestone — EPC's territory.