INTERTWINED THEMES REPORT — Week of June 28 – July 4, 2026

HORMUZ IS CRAWLING BACK OPEN BUT QATAR'S EXPORT MACHINE ISN'T HEALING WITH IT

• NYK Line CEO Takaya Soga said Hormuz shipping will run below half of prewar levels for months. Read This: Financial Times
• Iran is estimated to have laid about 80 mines in Hormuz's main shipping lanes, per the IMO. Read This: Financial Times
• Kpler logged 40 Hormuz transits on June 29, up from a March 1-June 17 daily average of 13. Read This: CNN
• QatarEnergy extended force majeure on four more Edison cargoes to early September, 21 total since April. Read These: CNBC, Edison
• Ras Laffan damage curtailed about 17% of Qatari LNG capacity and could take up to five years to repair. Read This: Bloomberg
• Shell said global LNG trade could see a rare annual contraction in 2026 if Hormuz stays choked. Read This: Reuters

THE ASIA PREMIUM HAS REROUTED US CARGOES EAST AND STARVED EUROPE'S REFILL