Demand Pressure

March 31–April 2, 2026

1. PRIMARY DEMAND PRESSURE SOURCES

  • China: Resold a record 1.31 Mt LNG year-to-date (10 cargoes in March alone) while importing just 3.68 Mt in March — lowest since April 2018. Domestic pipeline gas and inventories (~51% full) are covering demand, keeping China out of spot markets entirely. (Reuters, OilPrice.com)
  • EU: TTF front-month fell 2.5% to €53.55/MWh on stable Norwegian and LNG flows, but EU Commissioner Jorgensen warned governments to prepare for a prolonged Hormuz disruption. (Reuters)

2. SECONDARY / SHIFTING DEMAND

  • PetroVietnam Gas: Seeking one spot cargo of 3.2 million MMBtu for April 20–May 14 delivery. (Reuters)
  • South Korea / Thailand / Japan / India / Philippines: Absorbing China's reloaded cargoes — 10 to South Korea, 5 to Thailand, remainder split across Japan, India, and Philippines. Demand is rotating to these buyers as China steps back from spot procurement. (Reuters)

3. DEMAND SOFTENING / OFFSETTING FORCES

  • China: Weak industrial demand, sufficient pipeline and domestic gas supply, and favorable inventory levels have structurally suppressed Chinese spot buying. ICIS expects April imports to remain low at ~3.7 Mt. (Reuters)
  • Germany / Deutsche Energy Terminal: DET fed 25 TWh into the German grid in Q1 2026 — 2.5x Q1 2025 — absorbing incremental LNG import volumes into storage and grid, reducing acute procurement urgency. (Press Release)

4. NEW DEMAND CHANNELS

  • New Fortress Energy / Brazil: Signed a long-term lease for the Terminal de Gás Sul import terminal in Santa Catarina, commencing August 2026, targeting $50M EBITDA by 2027 and linked to the UTE Lins 2 power project starting 2031. Opens a new southern Brazil LNG import node in a region with limited alternative gas supply. (Press Release)

5. SUPPLY RESPONDING TO DEMAND

  • Oman LNG / Sefe: First LNG deliveries from Oman to Germany's Sefe have commenced under their March 2024 SPA for 0.4 Mt/year. Sefe confirmed flows are currently unaffected by the Iran war. (Reuters)
  • AMIGO LNG / IRH: International Resources Holding signed a 20-year SPA for 1 Mtpa from the AMIGO LNG project in Guaymas, Mexico, with deliveries expected H2 2028. Route avoids Panama Canal, providing direct Pacific access to Asian markets. (Press Release)
  • Taiwan: Signaled openness to joining a global LNG strategic reserve program, contingent on guaranteed delivery even under conflict with China — potentially anchoring emergency procurement into Japan or South Korea reserves. (Bloomberg)