Dec 31, 2025 : Europe Gas Heads for Sharp Annual Drop

LNG Global

— 2 min read

Europe Gas Heads for Sharp Annual Drop as LNG Surge Calms Market - Bloomberg

First US LNG Cargo for Bulgaria Arrives in Greece’s Alexandroupolis - Greek Reporter

Santos misses end-of-year deadline for first Barossa LNG cargo - The Australian Financial Review (Subscription)

US drillers add oil, gas rigs for second week in a row, Baker Hughes says - Reuters

Saipem secures $425m contract for expansion of Turkey's largest offshore gas field - Reuters

CBL International Facilitates Xiaomo Port's First LNG Bunkering for BYD in Shenzhen - Press Release

India's natural gas consumption seen rising 3-4% in FY27 on demand: Icra - Business Standard

LNG charter rates slide as year closes: What does 2026 hold? - TradeWinds (Subscription)

Banks Lower ‘26 Natural Gas Forecast Modestly but Long-Term Price Confidence Holds - Natural Gas Intelligence (Subscription)

Amigo LNG Pushes Toward FID With Waha Seen Below $3 in Early Export Window - Natural Gas Intelligence (Subscription)

Recent Themes in Political Pressure

Europe & Eastern Mediterranean

Cyprus / Egypt

Theme: State mediation to unlock stranded gas and secure export routes

  • Political pressure vector
    • Bilateral and multilateral negotiations to align upstream development with downstream LNG export access.
    • Use of contract amendments and regulatory waivers to resolve prior compliance disputes.
  • Key dynamics
    • Governments of Cyprus and Egypt acting as gatekeepers for LNG monetization via Egyptian liquefaction.
    • Sole-buyer structure (EGAS) concentrates state leverage over pricing and volumes.

South Asia

India

Theme: Regulatory reform to accelerate gas penetration and LNG demand

  • Political pressure vector
    • Central regulator intervention to restructure pipeline tariffs and improve affordability.
  • Key dynamics
    • Unified tariff reduces delivered gas costs nationwide.
    • State-backed policy aims to lift gas share from a structurally low base.

East Asia

China

Theme: Strategic defiance of Western sanctions to secure discounted LNG

  • Political pressure vector
    • State-enabled sanctions circumvention using shadow fleets and controlled terminals.

South Korea

Theme: Conflicting policy objectives between climate goals and trade geopolitics

  • Political pressure vector
    • US trade pressure to absorb LNG volumes versus domestic decarbonization agenda.
  • Key dynamics
    • Coal phase-out and nuclear expansion structurally reduce LNG baseload demand.
    • LNG positioned politically as a trade concession rather than energy necessity.

Southeast Asia

Vietnam

Theme: Government intervention to de-risk private LNG-to-power investment

  • Political pressure vector
    • Prime ministerial directives to resolve regulatory, PPA, and grid bottlenecks.
  • Key dynamics
    • LNG power positioned as critical to Power Development Plan VIII.
    • State mediation required to balance investor risk-sharing.

Russia & Arctic

Russia

Theme: Sanctions-driven supply constraints and state-led adaptation

  • Political pressure vector
    • Western sanctions delaying capacity expansion and forcing supply chain localization.
  • Key dynamics
    • Delay of 100 mtpa target removes large volumes from global supply outlook.
    • Domestic ice-class tanker program enables partial sanctions resilience.

Australia

Australia

Theme: Sovereign prioritization of domestic energy security over LNG exports

  • Political pressure vector
    • Mandatory domestic gas reservation replacing voluntary mechanisms.
  • Key dynamics
    • Exporters required to retain 15–25% of production for local market.
    • Policy responds to political backlash over high domestic prices.

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