Russia delays LNG output target of 100 million tons per year due to sanctions - Reuters

Korean player gets hold of interest in Asian offshore block ahead of oil & gas drilling ops - Offshore Energy

Israel mulls gas exports to Cyprus - Globes

Vietnam PM orders resolution of bottlenecks at GS Energy-backed LNG projects - The Investor

How Europe Kept the Lights On: The Gas Suppliers of 2025 - Modern Diplomacy

EU spent less on US energy after $750bn Trump trade deal - Financial Times (Subscription)

Houston Seller Analysis: Japan News (Week of Dec 18-24, 2025)

What the US Gulf Coast Exporter Sees

Houston Seller Analysis is a persona-driven intelligence product that filters raw LNG news through the commercial lens of a US Gulf Coast exporter, reading stories for its impact on netbacks, market share, and competitive positioning against Qatar, Canada, and Russia. It was created by applying a structured persona (containing thresholds, threat triggers, and strategic priorities) to one week of Japan-focused LNG news, translating market events into red/yellow flags that answer the exporter's core question: "Is this good or bad for my cargoes?"

🔴 RED FLAGS — Direct Threats to US LNG Exports

1. Kashiwazaki-Kariwa Nuclear Restart Gets Final Approval

Signal: POLICY_CHANGE | POLITICAL_PRESSURE

What happened: Niigata Prefectural Assembly completed local approval for Japan's largest nuclear plant. TEPCO's Unit 6 (1.36 GW) is targeted for restart in January 2026, with Unit 7 expected around 2030.

Houston Seller read: This removes the final domestic political barrier for Japan's largest nuclear facility. Each gigawatt of nuclear baseload that returns to service reduces the call on gas-fired generation. The policy trajectory is unambiguous: Japan is rebuilding domestic baseload that competes directly with imported LNG.

Threat level: 🔴 RED — Structural demand pressure in a premium market

2. Japan Proposes Up to 30% Public Financing for Nuclear Projects

Signal: DEMAND_SIGNAL | POLITICAL_PRESSURE

What happened: METI proposed a loan system covering up to 30% of nuclear project costs, with potentially higher coverage for large projects, to accelerate restarts and newbuilds toward 20% of the power mix by 2040.

Houston Seller read: This establishes a financing architecture to systematically address the $700 million to $1 billion per-reactor restart cost barrier. The policy intent is to accommodate power demand growth primarily through nuclear and renewables rather than incremental gas. This caps the upside for US export growth into Japan.

Threat level: 🔴 RED — Policy framework for long-term demand compression

🟡 YELLOW FLAGS — Watch Closely

3. US Extends Sakhalin-2 Sanctions Waiver Through June 2026

Signal: POLICY_CHANGE | POLITICAL_PRESSURE

What happened: The US Treasury Department extended the exemption allowing Japanese companies to continue transactions related to the Sakhalin-2 project for six months, through June 18, 2026.

Houston Seller read: Japan imported 8.6% of its LNG from Russia in 2024, entirely from Sakhalin-2. The waiver maintains the status quo: Russian molecules continue flowing to Japan, deferring the displacement opportunity that US exporters would otherwise capture. Each six-month extension prolongs this dynamic.

Threat level: 🟡 YELLOW — Market share opportunity deferred

4. Japan Launches $1.3 Billion Clean Power Subsidy Scheme

Signal: POLICY_CHANGE | POLITICAL_PRESSURE

What happened: METI announced a five-year, 210 billion yen ($1.3 billion) subsidy program starting FY2026, covering up to 50% of capital expenditure for companies using 100% clean energy. Data centers are explicitly eligible.

Houston Seller read: Japan's power demand growth, driven significantly by data center expansion, is being channeled toward renewables and nuclear through targeted subsidies. Gas-fired generation does not qualify as "100% clean energy" under this program. This creates a policy wedge that directs incremental electricity demand toward competing fuel sources rather than LNG.

Threat level: 🟡 YELLOW — Demand growth being directed away from gas

5. JERA Signs Domestic Supply Agreement with Hokkaido Gas

Signal: CONTRACT_SECURED | DEMAND_PRESSURE

What happened: JERA signed a seven-year LNG supply agreement with Hokkaido Gas for 2-3 cargoes per year (approximately 130,000-200,000 tonnes annually) on a DES basis, beginning in 2027.

Houston Seller read: This is domestic portfolio reallocation, not incremental import demand. JERA is leveraging its scale as Japan's largest LNG buyer to serve smaller regional utilities. The deal reflects a mature market structure where growth comes from consolidation and redistribution rather than aggregate volume increases.

Threat level: 🟡 YELLOW — Signals market maturity rather than growth