Crisis Memo Ras Laffan Industrial City

LNG Global

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Update 19 March 2026 8:15 PM – Houston, 1:15 AM March 20, 2026 – London, 9:15 AM March 20, 2026 – Singapore

1. Current operating status

For several weeks prior to the latest missile strikes, Qatar had already halted LNG production at Ras Laffan following earlier drone attacks and escalating regional tensions. QatarEnergy has since confirmed that several LNG facilities were struck in the early hours of Thursday, 19 March 2026, causing sizeable fires and extensive further damage, following the earlier 18 March attack on Ras Laffan Industrial City that extensively damaged Pearl GTL. Emergency response teams were deployed immediately, and QatarEnergy stated there were no reported casualties. The confirmed impact remains concentrated in two liquefaction trains and one GTL train.

2. LNG capacity offline

The principal LNG outage is:

  • Train 4 — offline
  • Train 6 — offline

Combined affected LNG capacity is 12.8 million tonnes per annum (MTPA). Based on QatarEnergy’s statement, this represents approximately 17% of Qatar’s LNG export capacity.

3. Ownership of affected LNG trains

  • Train 4: QatarEnergy 66%, ExxonMobil 34%
  • Train 6: QatarEnergy 70%, ExxonMobil 30%

4. Estimated timeframe for return online

QatarEnergy has indicated that repairs to the damaged LNG facilities will take three to five years. On that basis:

  • Earliest realistic return to service: around 3 years
  • Outer-case restoration period: up to 5 years

The company has also indicated that long-term force majeure may need to remain in place for up to five years on some contracts. QatarEnergy management has also signaled that meaningful repair work is unlikely to proceed until hostilities subside. If the conflict de-escalates and regional waterways reopen, Qatar could move to restart LNG capacity that remains mechanically intact and undamaged.

5. Pearl GTL status

The attacks also damaged the Pearl GTL facility at Ras Laffan.

  • One of two GTL trains is confirmed offline
  • Estimated minimum outage period: at least 1 year

A precise restart date has not been provided beyond that minimum guidance.

6. Associated products impacted by the LNG outage

The LNG and related facility damage is also expected to reduce associated product output as follows:

  • Condensates: 18.6 million barrels lost, about 24% of Qatar exports
  • LPG: 1.281 MT lost, about 13% of exports
  • Naphtha: 0.594 MT lost, about 6% of exports
  • Sulfur: 0.18 MT lost, about 6% of exports
  • Helium: 309.54 MCFA lost, about 14% of exports

7. Commercial status

QatarEnergy expects the damage to result in approximately $20 billion per year in lost revenue. The company has stated that some long-term LNG contracts may be subject to force majeure, with named market exposure including China, South Korea, Italy, and Belgium.

8. Bottom line

At present, the key status points are clear: two LNG trains are offline, one Pearl GTL train is offline, 12.8 MTPA of LNG capacity is unavailable, and the return-to-service window is three to five years for full LNG capacity and at least one year for the affected GTL train.

If security conditions improve and shipping lanes normalize, some currently workable LNG capacity could in principle be brought back ahead of full restoration of the damaged trains.

This is an evolving situation. Conditions, damage assessments, and restart expectations change. All sources should be monitored continuously, as new information may materially alter the outlook for operations, exports, and market impact.

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