Crisis Memo Ras Laffan Industrial City

Update 19 March 2026 1:12 PM – Houston, 6:12 PM – London, 2:12 AM March 20, 2026 – Singapore

Snapshot

• 12.8 mtpa destroyed — offline 3–5 years. Two of 14 LNG trains (S4 and S6) and one of two GTL facilities hit by Iranian missiles. 17% of Qatar's LNG export capacity gone. Damaged units cost ~$26B to build. ~$20B annual revenue lost. ExxonMobil holds 34% of S4, 30% of S6. Read More: Reuters — Iran attack wipes out 17% of Qatar's LNG capacity
• All remaining production halted. Ras Laffan and Mesaieed (~64 mtpa) shut since March 2 under force majeure to all buyers. Restart conditional on cessation of hostilities. Read More: Bloomberg — Asian Prices May Surpass $26 After Strike on Qatar LNG Plant
• Two missile waves confirmed (March 18–19). March 18 hit Pearl GTL. March 19 hit LNG equipment directly — now understood as the strike that destroyed S4 and S6. "Sizeable fires and extensive further damage." Read More: @qatarenergy via X — QatarEnergy Statement on Missile Attacks
• ~90 mtpa of Middle East LNG absent from market per JERA. Gas prices in Europe doubled since late February. Oil up as much as 10% Thursday. TTF forward curve at record highs. Asian LNG outpacing European gains. All set before al-Kaabi disclosure. Read More: OilPrice.com — Japan's Jera Sees Iran War Pushing LNG Buyers to U.S. and Canada

Timeline Report

Track 1 — Destroyed trains (S4, S6 — 12.8 mtpa):

• Offline 3–5 years per QatarEnergy CEO. Rebuild clock starts after hostilities end. Custom-made liquefaction parts add further months. Read More: Reuters — Iran attack wipes out 17% of Qatar's LNG capacity
• Force majeure may extend up to 5 years for Italy, Belgium, South Korea, and China. Read More: Reuters — Iran attack wipes out 17% of Qatar's LNG capacity

Track 2 — Undamaged trains (~64 mtpa):

• Al-Kaabi: "weeks to months" to normal deliveries even if war ended immediately. Requires ceasefire + Hormuz reopening + insurance normalization + confirmation of no hidden damage. Read More: Reuters — Qatar offloads five LNG slots at Belgium's Zeebrugge terminal for April
• No engineering assessment publicly disclosed for remaining 12 trains or shared infrastructure (storage, loading, utilities).

Key analyst context:

• Energy Vista: 4–5 months delay, up to 30 mt removed. Now superseded by 3–5 year official timeline.
• MST Marquee: impacts could last months or years. Validated.
• Columbia University: mid-year return "ambitious."
• ICIS: $30/mmbtu at 3-month Hormuz closure, $40 at 6 months. Set before al-Kaabi disclosure. Read More: Bloomberg — Asian Prices May Surpass $26 After Strike
• Wood Mackenzie: disruption longer than two months. Refrigeration unit damage could prevent quick return. Confirmed for S4/S6. Read More: CNN — What is the South Pars gas field and why is Israel's attack an escalation?
• John Kemp: custom-made parts take months. Facility repairs outlast Hormuz reopening. Prior restraint on targeting production sites now broken. Read More: @JKempEnergy via X — Uncontrolled Escalation and the Gas War
• ECB: material inflation impact. Euro zone inflation expected near 4%. Markets pricing 2–3 rate hikes by December. Read More: Reuters — Energy prices surge as Iran attack threatens long-term exports

Commercial Impact

Shipping:

• Hormuz at a trickle. Saudi Yanbu briefly disrupted — only functioning export port after Hormuz closed. Read More: Reuters — Energy prices surge as Iran attack threatens long-term exports
• Panama Canal averaging one LNG vessel daily, 65% southbound. VLCC Kalamos fixed at $770K/day. Read More: gCaptain — Panama Canal Sees LNG Surge
• Iran considering Hormuz transit fees. Jones Act waived 60 days. Flex LNG supermajor extensions through 2032. Read More: Reuters — Iran considers levying transit fees on ships in Hormuz

Buyers:

• Italy, Belgium, South Korea, China face potential 5-year force majeure.
• JERA first buyer to signal structural pivot to U.S./Canada. 2028 SPA at risk of delay. Read More: OilPrice.com — Japan's Jera Sees Iran War Pushing LNG Buyers to U.S. and Canada
• EU storage under 30%, Germany 22% — must reach 90% by winter. Asia outbidding Europe. Read More: Politico Pro — EU fears panic buying as gas reserves run low

This is a rapidly evolving situation. Conditions, damage assessments, and restart expectations are changing hour by hour. All sources should be monitored continuously, as new information may materially alter the outlook for operations, exports, and market impact.