7 Signals Brief

April 1, 2026

1. Hormuz Ceasefire Condition: Strait Access as the Gating Variable

Trump confirmed Iran requested a ceasefire but stated military action continues until the Strait of Hormuz is "open, free, and clear." Iran denied direct talks. China and Pakistan have tabled an initiative linking ceasefire to immediate reopening. Eleven Turkish-owned vessels remain blocked. Read: Trump says Iran's president asked for ceasefire, but U.S. wants Hormuz Strait open first — CNBC Trump claims Iran asked U.S. for ceasefire — Axios Turkey in Talks With Iran for Ships' Passage Through Hormuz — Bloomberg