Blog Post
U.S. EIA Natural Gas Export Projection
info • Feb 06, 2018
The U.S. Energy Information Administration released the Annual Energy Outlook 2018 today. It includes projections of U.S. energy markets through 2050 based on a reference case and a number of sensitivity cases. Below is the image from the report related to U.S. natural gas exports. The entire report can be found in PDF format here.
- In the Reference case, pipeline exports to Mexico and liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports increase until 2020. Through 2030, pipeline export growth to Mexico slows, and LNG exports grow rapidly.
- Increasing natural gas exports to Mexico are the result of more pipeline infrastructure to and within that country, allowing for increased natural gas-fired power generation. By the mid-2020s, Mexican domestic natural gas production begins to displace U.S. exports.
- One LNG export facility currently operates in the Lower 48 states with a second facility expected to be operating in March 2018. After the five U.S. LNG export facilities currently under construction are completed by 2021, LNG export capacity is projected to increase as Asian demand grows and U.S. natural gas prices remain competitive. As U.S.-sourced LNG becomes less competitive, export volumesremain constant during the later years of the projection.
- U.S. imports of natural gas from Canada, primarily from its prolific Western region, remain relatively stable for the next few years before declining from historically high levels. U.S. exports of natural gas to Eastern Canada continue to increase because of Eastern Canada’s proximity to U.S. natural gas resources in the Marcellus and Utica plays.
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