Canada’s Energy Future 2018: Energy Supply and Demand Projections to 2040

The Canadian National Energy Board (NEB) today released Canada’s Energy Future 2018: Energy Supply and Demand Projections to 2040.

The NEB’s flagship energy information publication explores how possible energy futures might unfold for Canadians over the long term. NEB energy analysts use economic and energy models to make projections based on certain sets of assumptions given past and recent trends.

Report highlights:

Natural gas production in the Reference Case increases to 20.9 Bcf/d by 2040. This is driven by gradually rising prices and investment associated with LNG exports.

Canadian oil and natural gas production increases in the Reference Case. Price and technology trends will be key factors influencing Canadian production in the future.

The growth in crude oil production is led by oilsands, which increases from 2.8 MMb/d in 2017 to 4.5 MMb/d in 2040.

In the Reference Case, total Canadian electricity generation increases by over 78 TW.h from 2017 to 2040, an increase of about 12 per cent.

By 2040, the share of non-emitting electricity generation increases to nearly 84 per cent in the Reference Case and 90 per cent in the Technology Case, compared to approximately 80 per cent currently.

In the Reference Case, energy use per dollar of GDP is nearly 30 per cent lower than current levels by 2040, while energy use per person is nearly 15 per cent lower than current levels by 2040.

Canada’s Energy Future 2018: Energy Supply and Demand Projections to 2040 can be found at the NEB website here.